LSU’s NCAA Tournament Hopes Aren’t Dead But They Are On Life Support

If you’ve been following LSU basketball lately, you know the vibe: it’s been a lot of "if only." If only a few shots had dropped against Kentucky, or if they’d closed out that late lead against Arkansas on Saturday.

But tonight against Mississippi State, "almost" isn't going to cut it. This is a massive "get right" game at the PMAC.

The Good News: Dedan is Back

The biggest reason for optimism is that Dedan Thomas Jr. finally looks like himself again. After missing those five games with the leg injury, he stepped back onto the court against Arkansas and reminded everyone why he's the engine of this team. He dropped 18 points and 5 assists, and for the first time in weeks, the offense actually looked organized.

With Thomas back in the driver's seat, the pressure eases off Max Mackinnon. Max has been carrying a massive scoring load (averaging nearly 15 points), but he’s much more dangerous when he can play off the ball rather than trying to create everything himself.

The Bulldogs are Hurting

If there was ever a time to catch Mississippi State, it’s right now. They’ve lost five in a row, including a bizarre 32-point blowout loss to Vanderbilt. Their defense has basically gone AWOL lately, giving up 88 points in back-to-back games. 

The only thing that should keep Matt McMahon up tonight is Josh Hubbard. Hubbard has historically treated the PMAC like his personal driveway, and even though he’s coming off a quiet game, he’s still averaging over 21 points. If LSU lets him get hot early, it’s going to be a long night. 

The Tournament Talk: Is there a chance?

Let’s be honest: at 1-6 in the SEC, the "Lock" status for the NCAA Tournament sailed away a few weeks ago. But the computers (NET and KenPom) still actually like LSU because they’ve played such a brutal schedule and kept games close.

• Current Status: Bubble Longshot (approx. 17% chance).

• The Goal: 21 wins. To get there, they basically need to go 8-3 the rest of the way.

It sounds impossible, but look at the next three games: Mississippi State (home), South Carolina (away), and Georgia (home). All three are winnable. If they sweep this week, that 17% chance jumps to 40% overnight. If they lose tonight? We’re probably talking about the NIT.

Tonight isn't just about a win—it's about proving that the 12-1 start to the season wasn't a fluke. It should be a fun one at the PMAC; nothing beats the energy of a team playing with their backs against the wall.